The bitmap is not reliable! Explain that the Fed only raises interest rates once this year.

Huitong.com December 15th - At the end of last year, when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years in December 2015, the Fed’s dot matrix and international analysis were raised for the Fed’s interest rate increase in 2016. Both the organization and the market have given their own forecasts, and since then, the predictions of the parties and the political events and economic data have been constantly adjusted.

The actual results are surprising, and the Fed’s actual rate hike in 2016 was only one time, far lower than previous forecasts. Previously, it was widely believed that the Fed would make 3-4 rate hike decisions at eight policy meetings throughout 2016.



Fed dot matrix map <br> The Fed’s December 2015 point map shows that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates four times in 2016. Then, in March 2016, June and September, the Fed believed that the number of interest rate hikes was reduced to 2, 2 and 1 respectively.

Although the Fed’s call for a rate hike is high, Fed officials have repeatedly expressed their willingness to raise interest rates. However, the Fed has been inactive for a number of reasons until the early hours of December 15th, Beijing time, when the Fed announced that it will be a federal fund. The interest rate target range is raised by 25 basis points to the level of 0.5% to 0.75%, which is the first rate hike by the Fed during the year. Actually, the Fed’s actual rate hikes are far less than expected. It seems a bit unreliable to calculate the Fed’s rate hike according to the point map.

Institutional and Market Analysis <br>A lot of institutions and market participants have expressed a lot of opinions at different times on whether the Fed raises interest rates and raises interest rates several times. With the passage of time and the release of political time and economic data, the market has adjusted the Fed’s interest rate hike and the number of interest rate hikes. Here's a look at the different voices surrounding the Fed's interest rate hike every month:

January 2016
In January, the market was generally cautious about raising interest rates for the Fed, and even thought that the Fed could delay interest rate hikes. IMF chief economist Obersfard said that the Fed’s rate hike is based on the US economic strength and rising inflation expectations, but future data is expected to show that the US economic recovery is weak. Zhu Min, vice chairman of the IMF, believes that because the US economy is recovering, the Fed will raise interest rates, but the IMF encourages the Fed to adopt a cautious attitude toward raising interest rates. "Dr. Doom" Lubini said that the United States increased its weakness in the fourth quarter of last year, coupled with the global financial market turmoil, geopolitical risks, and commodity prices plummeted, which means that inflation may further decline, and the Fed may postpone interest rate hikes.

The chief economist of ING International Group said on January 22 that the US CPI monthly rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in December, and the growth of the US service industry unexpectedly weakened in December. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates at least until the second half of 2016, and 2016. You may only raise interest rates once a year. Financial tycoon Soros said he was surprised by the Fed’s rate hike, and he even thought the Fed would cut interest rates. Morgan Stanley believes that if the market is over-adjusted, the Fed can raise interest rates further.

Here are some of the Fed’s expected interest rate hikes given by international agencies in January. <br>Goldman Sachs: Don’t think the Fed will raise interest rates four times or more in 2016. BlackRock: The Fed is expected to raise interest rates 1-2 Dutch cooperation. Bank: Fed raises interest rate again before June. Hope Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO): It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates three times in 2016. HSBC: It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates twice in 2016, the first time for Morgan Stanley in June. Lee: The market turmoil is no less than the Fed’s rate hike 4 times Nomura: The Fed will raise interest rates twice in 2016

The reason for the Fed’s no-rate increase in January was that the US stock market plummeted. The US Federal Open Market Committee said that the US economy and inflation are not strong enough to support the rate hike.

February 2016 <br> In February, the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations were significantly weakened, and various institutions have lowered the Fed’s expected rate hikes. Federal Reserve Governor Brainard pointed out that there is a shortage of demand on a global scale. Market factors have hit the US in the past year. The weak overseas economy and the decline in domestic neutral interest rates may slow the Fed’s interest rate hike.

Goldman Sachs lowered its interest rate hike expectations, thinking that the Fed’s rate hikes in 2016 was less than expected, or only raising interest rates three times. Economists at Wells Fargo and Bank of America Merrill Lynch also said that the Fed will not continue to raise interest rates as expected at the end of 2015.

In addition, most economists have given up the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates again in mid-March after less than a month. Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut the Fed’s rate hike three to four times during the year to two times.

March 2016 <br>In March, with the release of a series of economic data from the United States, the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates have warmed up. Many Fed officials also made speeches, but they still maintained dovish speech.

Data show that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 242,000 in February, boosting the Fed’s interest rate hike expectations. San Francisco Fed President Williams said that it may be necessary to make some minor adjustments to the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. Chicago Fed President Evans said that the global risk is higher than in December, and the Fed’s policy of maintaining easing is still correct, but if the economic data strengthens in the future, the Fed’s interest rate map will be revised. He hopes that interest rates will eventually be raised to normal levels, but believes that the Fed does not need to raise interest rates quickly. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech seems to be more dovish than the market expected. She warned that it is still too early to raise interest rates, and hinted that there will be no interest rate hikes in future policy meetings. Morgan Stanley subsequently expected the Fed to raise interest rates once in 2016, after the Fed had expected to raise interest rates three times.

The reason why the Fed did not raise interest rates in March was that it believed that the development of the global economic and financial situation remained risky.

April 2016
In April, the United States announced the number of initial jobless claims and the March producer price index, which made the Fed cautious about raising interest rates.

According to data from the US Department of Labor on April 7, the number of jobless claims in the US on April 2 fell to 267,000, ending the three-week rising trend, suggesting that the US labor market is healthy and corporate recruitment activities are more frequent. The Fed’s gradual rate hike during the year provides strong support. The US producer price index unexpectedly fell in March, and the impact of rising energy prices was offset by the decline in service costs. Peaceful inflation data will keep the Fed's cautious attitude toward raising interest rates.

Boston Fed President Rosen Glenn believes that the Fed rate hike may be earlier than current market expectations, which is appropriate, but the market is too pessimistic about the Fed's interest rate hike, he believes that the Fed rate hike will be faster than market expectations. Chicago Fed President Evans believes that the Fed’s rate hike will depend on actual economic data. Dallas Fed President Kaplan said that the Fed’s rate hike will be slower than in the past, and the Fed will rule out the impact of the US election when considering interest rates. He also said that if inflation remains at a high level, he will force the Fed to raise interest rates, and the market will also absorb the expectation of raising interest rates. If the US consumer data in the second quarter rebounded strongly, the market's expected rate hike may be more consistent with the Fed's assessment. At the time of the Fed's FOCM voting committee, except for the Kansas City Federal Reserve Chairman George, the other voting committees advocated that it is not appropriate to raise interest rates for the time being, and agreed that it is more appropriate to raise interest rates twice this year. Fed Watch's federal interest rate futures data shows that traders are more likely to bet that the Fed will only raise interest rates once this year. Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that the possibility of a Fed rate hike is increasing rather than decreasing. Standard Chartered said that the employment situation in the United States is not optimistic, and the 2016 Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is difficult. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority believes that there is uncertainty in the pace of the Fed’s rate hike.

The reason for the Fed’s no-rate increase in April is that although the risk has eased, the inflation rate is still too low, so it is difficult to raise interest rates.

May 2016 <br>In May, the market began to pay attention to the impact of the US election on the Fed’s interest rate hike. However, most analysts believe that the impact of the election on the interest rate hike is limited, and the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to improve.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch experts Mark Cabana and Michael Hanson said that the Fed will not let the US elections hinder its pace of interest rate hikes. Assuming there is enough progress to support further rate hikes, the Fed will only postpone its work in one situation, that is, the November election coincides with a high degree of economic uncertainty that affects prospects or leads to substantial financial tightening.

St. Louis Fed President Brad still hopes that the Fed will raise interest rates based on economic data. Because US GDP is worse than expected, the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to fall. Federal funds rate futures show that traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 24% in June, down from 26% on Thursday.

June 2016 <br>The big event in June this year was the Brexit referendum held in the UK, which had an impact on delaying the Fed’s rate hike. In addition, some of the economic data released from the market is relatively weak, which also hits the Fed’s willingness to raise interest rates.

In May, the growth rate of non-agricultural employment in the United States fell to the lowest level in more than five years, and the drop in unemployment in May was due to the large number of laborers withdrawing from the job market. This data is no different for Fed officials who want to raise interest rates in the near future. When the head is awesome.

UBS Chairman said that the Brexit referendum will cast a shadow over the Fed's rate hike resolution, which may cause the Fed to postpone the rate hike. Chicago Fed President Evans pointed out that it may be appropriate for the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in 2016. However, if the US economic data continues to improve, then the Fed will raise interest rates twice during the year, but the current conditions for achieving this premise have not been met. Jacobson, chief investment officer of Saxo Bank of Denmark, said that the Fed has made itself in a dilemma in monetary policy, and disappointing non-farm payrolls data may exacerbate this situation.

Before the Brexit referendum, the US Federal Open Market Committee worried that the Brexit would have an impact on the economic and financial markets, and the US non-farm payrolls data in May was unexpectedly bleak, and the Fed continued to stand still.

July 2016 <br>After the UK unexpectedly decided to leave the European Union in June, international agencies expressed their influence on the Fed’s interest rate hike. In addition, the US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was only 1.2%, and the growth rate was much lower than the expected value of 2.5%, which made the market disappointing. The US federal funds rate futures indicated that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates fell.

UBS said that Brexit ordered the bank to lower the Fed’s rate hike expectations. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 points in December and raise interest rates only twice in 2017, raising interest rates by 25 points each time.

Morgan Stanley strategists released the latest forecast, saying that due to the weak US economic growth, the Fed will not raise interest rates in 2016 and 2017. Westpac said that the market is filled with risk aversion, but its rate of interest rate hikes has barely changed, suggesting that the rate hike rate in September is 20%, the rate of interest rate hike in December is 50%, and the probability of raising interest rates in November next year. 100%. Faba Bank believes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once a year, and it is not possible to exclude the possibility of two times. Royal Bank of Canada pointed out that after the UK referendum leaves the EU, the FOMC's assessment of global risks will be “a bit more radical”. Brexit has clearly changed the Fed’s calculus, and its assumptions about the Fed’s rate hike are still the earliest in June 2017. The chief economist at Bloomberg said that the US economy is growing more gradually, and the Fed’s interest rate hike is also the case.

As the US stock market rose to a record high, the Fed said in July that it needs to wait for more positive evidence to decide to raise interest rates.

August 2016
On August 5th, the US Department of Labor announced the gorgeous July non-farm payrolls report, suggesting that the US economy is better than the market had expected, thus improving the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates. After Jackson Hole’s annual “interest rate chat” meeting, the Fed’s market expectations for a rate hike during the year seem to have changed, as Fed officials used the meeting to send new signals to the outside world, thus reversing market expectations.

A number of Fed officials have expressed their attitude toward whether to raise interest rates in September:
Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen: Given the continued solid performance of the US labor market, economic activity and inflation outlook, it believes that the reasons for raising the US federal funds rate have increased in recent months;

Fed Vice Chairman Fisher: Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole has hinted that the market is ready to raise interest rates in September and raise interest rates twice during the year, and the United States stores the possibility of raising interest rates in September and raising interest rates twice;

New York Fed President Dudley: It is currently on the verge of further addition and is currently very close to the appropriate rate hike;

St. Louis Fed President Brad: It is best to raise interest rates after good news from economic data. Although the two non-agricultural employment data in the United States performed better, the GDP growth was very low;

Kansas City Fed President George: When it sees the strength of the US labor market, as well as inflation and expected prospects, it is time for the Fed to raise interest rates.

September 2016 <br>The US announced the number of jobless claims for the first week of August 27th indicates that the US labor market remains strong, thus pushing the Fed to raise interest rates. In addition, the market expects that the US election will not have a big impact on the Fed's interest rate hike.

Kaplan, the chairman of the US Dallas Fed, said in a speech that the Fed’s interest rate hike path will be very flat. He believes that the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates has risen since the past few months, and the long-term headwinds facing economic growth mean that the Fed can raise interest rates at a slow rate. The Nobel Prize winner in economics and American economist Scholes pointed out that the time window for the Fed to raise interest rates may be in September or December this year, and December is more likely.

Goldman Sachs raised the chances of the Fed’s rate hike in September to 55%, and expects a rate hike of 80% during the year. "New debt king" Gundlach said that now is not a good opportunity for the Fed to raise interest rates, but the Fed is determined to show its independence from the data. If the federal funds rate futures show a rate hike probability of less than 40%, the Fed will not be able to raise interest rates in September. Standard Chartered Bank does not expect the US to raise interest rates until the end of this year. It is expected that it will raise interest rates as soon as 2018.

Because of the uncertainty brought about by the US election, the Fed still decided to keep interest rates unchanged in September.

October 2016
IMF chief economist Oberstfeld said that the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates in September was correct. The US election has brought economic uncertainty, and the Fed’s rate hike may be appropriate in the coming months.

After the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve in September, the Fed’s expectations for a rate hike were strengthened, but Fed’s president Yellen’s comments in October showed that the doves would wait until the job market was “hot” to raise interest rates. New York Fed President Dudley said he is not worried that the Fed’s interest rate hike will bring major problems to the stock market. A 25 basis point rate hike should not be a major event. Chicago Fed President Evans said that the pace of interest rate hikes should be linked to the progress of completing the inflation target, and may need to make the unemployment rate lower than the target, and the inflation rate is higher than the target. Evans believes that the Fed will raise interest rates three times by the end of 2017.

Pacific Investment Management said the Fed may raise interest rates two to three times by the end of 2017. The French Foreign Trade Bank research team pointed out that through the minutes of the September meeting released by the Federal Reserve, the Fed is nearing the announcement of a rate hike, and the subsequent rate hike will be "relatively fast." LAACILLE, chief investment officer of State Street Global Investment, said that the Fed rate hike may be postponed until March next year. Chris Rupkey of Mitsubishi Tokyo UFJ believes that the possibility of a Fed rate hike is very high, and the only way Yellen can suppress the hawkish voice may be to promise them a rate hike in 2016.

Singapore’s OCBC Bank said that the Fed may raise interest rates in December and then raise interest rates two times next year. These moves will raise the dollar’s ​​exchange rate and adversely affect the price of gold.

November 2016
According to data released in November, the number of private sector employment in the United States increased by 147,000 in October. This indicates that although the pace of growth of the employed population has slowed down, employment growth has remained strong, or it will not become a roadblock for the Fed to raise interest rates. In addition, the third quarter GDP growth in the United States was better than expected. Consumers pointed out that the data and PCE price index data were mixed, and the overall performance of the data was strong, indicating that the US economy grew strongly in the third quarter, adding another data basis for the Fed to raise interest rates in December.

Fed Vice Chairman Fisher said that the market believes that the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is higher than 70%, and the rate hike by the Fed is slower than in the past. Federal Reserve Brad reiterated that it is expected that by the end of 2019, the Fed will raise interest rates once. He believes that February is a reasonable time to raise interest rates. He also believes that an unexpected situation will prevent the Fed from raising interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates once and then remain unchanged during the forecast period.

Bank of Montreal, Canada, said that the US non-farm payrolls report for October was generally good. After the seasonal adjustment, the number of non-agricultural employment is close to expectations, which makes the market not react too much to the data. This report makes the Fed more likely to raise interest rates in December. The Indonesian central bank expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice in 2017 and three times in 2018. Wells Fargo pointed out that the latest economic data supports the Fed to raise interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will announce a rate hike at its next meeting and raise interest rates twice in 2017.

December 2016 <br> As the Fed’s rate hike expectations continue to heat up, the market finally believes that the Fed will raise interest rates in December.

Moody's pointed out that the Fed's rate hike reflects the strength of the US economy, and the US economic expansion period is expected to continue until 2018. Reuters survey shows that most US primary market traders expect that the Fed will not raise interest rates more than twice in 2017. In addition, they also expect that the Fed's next interest rate hike will be in the second quarter of 2017.

Wells Fargo believes that the US non-farm payrolls report in November has some shortcomings, but it is not enough to prevent the Fed from raising interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates three times from now until the end of 2017.