CITIC Jiantou: In the short-term, the quarterly report will focus on investment opportunities for valuation switching.

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[CITIC Construction Investment Strategy Weekly] Performance is the key, downstream is the king - Strategy Weekly Week 4th week

From WeChat public number: Jiantou strategy research

Strategic week view

In the domestic economy, the economy is stable and the economy is diverging. From the upstream, the coal consumption of power generation has fallen back, the price of thermal coal has fluctuated at a high level, the price of colored coal has been weak, and the price of oil has fluctuated upward. From the midstream, the price of building materials is eye-catching, the chemical economy is still high, and the price of wood pulp continues to rise. From the downstream, the sales of first- and third-line commercial housing declined, the sales of automobiles were good, the electronic and shipping booms were still there, and the prices of agricultural products continued to rebound. In September, exports continued to pick up.

In terms of overseas economy, the UK's GDP data and credit data continue to reflect that the European economy is still in a good recovery process. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and extended the time to shrink. In this economic context, the weakening of the euro will drive a small depreciation of the renminbi. The good performance of the overseas market economy is conducive to the export sectors such as textiles and clothing, consumer electronics, and transportation.

On the regulatory front, Chairman Liu Shiyu emphasized the frontline supervision of the exchange in his speech at the International Symposium on the First-line Supervision of the Stock Exchange this Friday. We believe that follow-up in the inquiry of listed companies, increase the real-time monitoring of transactions and urge the securities companies to undertake customer management. There are room for reinforcement in terms of responsibility. In terms of liquidity, fiscal spending will rise in August, and liquidity will be slightly loose next week. Next week's fiscal expenditure stack will be reduced, but the monthly demand for cross-month funding will remain, and liquidity will remain tight. If you do not consider the central bank's open market operations next week, the liquidity gap next week is about 390 billion yuan, significantly lower than last week.

The fermentation of the quarterly market has added optimism to the market. The mid-upstream cycle is prominent, and the growth of structural stocks is instigated. After careful observation, consumption is still the main support of the market. Looking ahead to the market, the disclosure of the third quarterly report will correct market expectations, and the market will continue to report in the short term. In the long run, we insist on performance as the key link and continue to be optimistic about the support of the downstream sector. At the current time, focus on investment opportunities for valuation switching. From the perspective of configuration, focus on media, medicine, liquor, finance, etc. On the theme, focus on emerging manufacturing, military-civilian integration, beautiful China, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration.

1 Domestic economy: the upper and middle reaches of the economy are divided, focusing on the downstream sub-sector

From the upstream, the coal consumption of power generation has fallen back, the price of thermal coal has fluctuated at a high level, the price of colored coal has been weak, and the price of oil has fluctuated upward. As of the week of October 26, the coal consumption of power generation in the six major power plants fell by -4.56% from the previous month, and the current price of the thermal coal period fluctuated at a high level. Iron ore 1801 weakened by nearly 2.10%. The price increase of industrial metals is slightly weak. Except for the sharp drop in tin prices, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel and lead are all at high levels. IPE oil and WTI crude oil (continuous contract) futures rose 1.19% and 1.38% respectively, and the recent oil price shocked upward.

From the midstream, the price of building materials is eye-catching, the chemical economy is still high, and the price of wood pulp continues to rise. China's cement and glass price index rebounded for 9 consecutive weeks and 11 weeks respectively, among which the cement prices in the Yangtze River, East China and Northwest China were strong. Rebar HRB400 and hot rolled coil Q345 rebounded by 0.51% and were flat. Jiantou Chemical's prosperity index maintained a positive value for 16 consecutive weeks. As of October 20, hydrogen peroxide increased by 15.56%, aluminum fluoride (dry method) rose by 14.05%, TDI rose by 10.94%, methylene chloride increased by 10.09%, caustic soda increased by 5.1. %, acetic anhydride rose by 3.59%, and urea rose by 2.55%. In textiles, nylon DTY, polyester FDY and PTA (East China) all rose. Recently, the price of waste paper has rebounded sharply after falling sharply. The softwood pulp continues to rise, and the price of paper products has reached a high level.

From the downstream, the sales of first- and third-line commercial housing declined, the sales of automobiles were good, the electronic and shipping booms were still there, and the prices of agricultural products continued to rebound. In September, exports continued to pick up. As of the 25th, the transaction area of ​​commercial housing in the main 30 cities fell by 44.98% year-on-year, which was basically the same as that in September, with the first-line and third-line declines expanding. According to the data of the association, the retail sales of passenger cars in October were stable and the wholesale was strong. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Electronics Industry Index are still at a high level, and the electronic boom continues. This week, the BDI index continued to rise. The prices of agricultural products continued to rebound. Pork prices fluctuated at a low level, beef and mutton rebounded sharply, and vegetable prices rebounded. In September, the export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year, among which the export of high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products increased by 8.9% and 8.2% respectively.

Industry recommendation

medicine

On October 23, the General Office of the State Food and Drug Administration issued a public consultation on the "Amendment of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)". It is expected that the amendments to the Drug Administration Law will be launched soon. The full implementation of the drug listing permit holder system will be conducive to the development of new drugs. It is expected that the drug management reform will accelerate the advent of large-scale large enterprises, and is generally beneficial to domestic leading enterprises of innovative drugs. As China accelerates the reform of innovative medicine legislation and policy implementation, it will greatly promote the long-term healthy development of the innovative medicine industry. Judging from the results of the 3 quarterly report, the growth rate of Q3 has improved significantly. The valuation of PE in the sector is slightly higher than the historical average. At present, it is recommended to grasp the opportunity of valuation switching.

Media

In the early stage, the media sector rose due to many factors such as exceeding the expectations of the National Day box office and the high market atmosphere in the previous period. Overall, the media sector valuation is still at a low level, the results of the third quarter report disclosed more than 60%, the performance pre-happiness rate reached about 70%. Overall, the media sector's performance has diverged, but the valuation switch is still expected, follow-up recommendations focus on high performance and high growth quality targets.

Environmental protection

With the development of domestic environmental protection and the development of beautiful China, the investment space in China's environmental protection field is still expanding. Driven by the policy, the environmental protection industry is still expected to continue to pay attention. It is recommended to focus on the leading indicators in various fields including atmospheric management, water treatment, solid waste, environmental monitoring and soil remediation. From the perspective of valuation, the current PE valuation of Shenwan Environmental Engineering and Service Industry is at the historical average level. It is expected that policy-driven and performance release will benefit the leading targets.

2 Overseas economy: European recovery continues and interest rates remain unchanged

European recovery continues

On October 25th, the UK released September GDP data and credit data. The GDP growth rate was 1.5%, in line with market expectations. The UK’s consumer credit growth rate was 1.5%, and mortgage loans grew by 2.7%, both higher than expected. The European economy has continued to perform well. This is consistent with our judgment. After the full de-leveraging of the European debt crisis in 2010, credit continued to rise, which is of great help to the continued recovery of the European economy. From the performance of the European market, the UK FTSE index rose by 0.49%, the German DAX index rose by 1.09%, and the S&P 500 index continued to hit new highs. The stock market reflects good expectations that the economy continues to be good.

European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged

On October 26, the European Central Bank decided to maintain the refinancing rate at 0, keeping interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Judging from the contraction, the European Central Bank decided to reduce the current monthly purchase of 60 billion euros of assets to 30 billion euros per month from January 2018, and extend the QE operation time to September 2018. The entire interest rate resolution is in line with market expectations and shows a certain dovish attitude on the QE timetable.

After the European Central Bank announced the interest rate decision, the euro fell rapidly, pushing up the dollar, the European stock market continued to rise, and the renminbi continued to move in a two-way range. Good performance in overseas markets will benefit China's export sector. From the perspective of investment strategy, industries such as textiles and clothing, consumer electronics, and transportation are worthy of attention.

3 Policy Perspective: Maintaining a strict regulatory posture and tight liquidity next week

Maintain strict financial supervision and conscientiously implement the spirit of major conferences

The CSRC maintained a strict regulatory posture and imposed administrative penalties on one insider trading case. In the case, Hengkang Medical has successively acquired a number of hospitals in Sichuan Province in order to realize the strategic transformation from pharmaceutical to medical services. Liu, Wang and Xue are both insiders and purchased Hengkang Medical for profit during the period of sensitive information. The SFC confiscated the insider trader's illegal income and imposed a fine. In the mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, insider trading crimes are high, and the CSRC maintains a key supervision and severe crackdown on such violations.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission convened a meeting of the party committee (expansion) to convey the spirit of the 19th Party Congress. The China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission fully affirmed the important significance of the party's 19th National Congress. In politics, it quickly studied and implemented the leadership of the 19th National Congress and adhered to the party's leadership over all work. In economic work, we will go all out to support the construction of a modern economic system, resolutely prevent and resolve financial risks under the new situation, and further promote the reform and opening up of the banking industry in the new era. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission requires the implementation of the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the combination of “insurance surname insurance” and “supervised surname supervision” to resolutely prevent and resolve major risks in the insurance field, promote the return of the insurance industry, and effectively enhance the professionalism, penetration and authority of supervision. Keep the bottom line where systemic risks do not occur.

The ultra-reservoir rate is low and superimposed across the moon. It is expected that the liquidity will be tight next week

Liquidity tightened this week, and it is judged that liquidity will maintain a tight balance next week. This week, faced with disturbances such as tax payment and government bond issuance, the market funds have tightened, and we have successfully verified our judgment on the tight balance of liquidity this week. The current super-reserve rate is in a historical position, and it faces a cross-month disturbance factor at the end of October. It is expected that the liquidity will continue to be tightly balanced next week, but the fluctuation risk is controllable.

This week, the central bank continued to “fill the valley” operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. Due to the increase in disturbance factors such as quarterly tax payment, government bond issuance, deposit reserve payment, and new currency liquidity regulations, the central bank continued to operate the net this week, with a total of 300 billion yuan. Specifically, this week, the central bank continued to deliver a large net amount on Monday and Tuesday, with a net volume of 140 billion yuan. It was stable on Wednesday and a small net investment of 20 billion yuan on Thursday. This week's 7-day reverse repurchase is 110 billion yuan more than the 14-day reverse repurchase, raising the cost of capital through the "lock short and long". It is expected that DR007 will continue to operate steadily around 2.9%, and the central bank will continue to stabilize its funding expectations through the “peak-shaving” operation.

This week, liquidity is tight, and interest rates are mostly up. From the perspective of interest rate movements, DR007 has seen a downward trend this week. The weekly average interest rate is 2.8685%, which is 0.69BP higher than the previous month. This week, most of the SHIBOR went up, indicating that liquidity is tightening. In the same industry, the 3M volume and price increased, the 6M and 9M prices fell, and the 1M and 1Y prices fell. Among them, 9M and 1M declined the most, with a drop of 43% and 37% respectively; the price was 9M, the maximum was the highest, and the upward was 7.53BP.

If you do not consider the central bank's open market operations next week, the liquidity gap next week is about 552 billion yuan. Next week's liquidity is analyzed from the perspective of the central bank's open market operations and fiscal deposits. (1) The open market operation due amount next week is 740 billion yuan, significantly higher than last week. As of today's data, the central bank's public operation reverse repurchase is expected to be 740 billion yuan next week, and next month there will be 207 billion MLF due, higher than this week's open market operation due amount of 310 billion yuan, public The liquidity pressure brought about by the expiration of the market has increased significantly. (2) The fiscal deposits in October are expected to increase by nearly 939.6 billion yuan, averaging about 230 billion yuan per week. In November, fiscal deposits are expected to fall by nearly 27.7 billion, an average of about 160 billion a week. In the past five years, the average value of fiscal deposits in September was -342.4 billion, while the average value in October was 597.2 billion. The increase was about 939.6 billion yuan, an average increase of nearly 230 billion yuan per week. The average fiscal deposit in November was -27.7 billion, which was 622.9 billion yuan compared with October, and the average weekly reduction was nearly 160 billion.

4

Market Review: Performance is the key

This week, the market rebounded, SSE (+1.11%), Shenzhen Stock Exchange (+2.43%), and entrepreneurship (2.58%). In terms of industry, the 28/29 industry rose, and the electronics, building materials, steel, agriculture, animal husbandry, machinery, construction, home appliances, and chemical industries rose by more than 3%. In the secondary industry, the transportation industry, other components II, animal husbandry, construction machinery II, other building materials, semiconductor II, and agricultural chemical 7 sub-sectors rose more than 4%. In terms of topics, nickel-cobalt, railway transportation equipment, animal vaccines, nitrogen fertilizer, nuclear power, boiler equipment, soda ash, other non-silver, other components, phosphorus chemicals, home textiles, integrated marketing, and organic silicon 13 industries rose more than 5%.

In terms of market style, the rise in consumer disk has become the most important factor supporting the rise of the market this week. We saw that when the market rebounded quickly and broke through 3,400, the financial market was significantly adjusted, and the market attitude was positive and optimistic. At the same time, there were small-cap, cycle and growth.

In the context of liquidity neutrality, the support of economic fundamentals is an important basis for current small and medium-cap stocks and cyclical growth. At the current time, the cyclical correction reflects certain concerns about the fundamentals of the economy, so the market switches to the defense sector such as consumption and finance. Another support for traditional consumption is current expectations of performance, but when traditional consumption peaks in the short-term profit growth of real estate peaks, the market will begin to seek new possibilities. We believe that the emerging industries including TMT are firstly affected by the upstream price fluctuations, and the new direction is the new kinetic energy of future development. In the fourth quarter, emerging industries will revive the valuation and lead new value.

5 industry configuration

Industry recommendation

From the growth rate of Shenwan's first-class industry performance (see table below), the major industries improved compared with 17Q2 include upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumption. Industries with higher performance growth include steel, machinery and equipment, mining, military, transportation, and non-ferrous industries. The industries with obvious improvement include mining, food and beverage, machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, leisure services, and chemicals. Building decoration, utilities, commercial trade, biomedicine, etc. Among them, the traditional consumption and emerging consumer industries performed well, and the growth rate of food and beverage, leisure services, commercial trade, biomedicine, real estate, household appliances, communications and other industries all rebounded compared with Q2.

medicine

On October 23, the General Office of the State Food and Drug Administration issued a public consultation on the "Amendment of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)". It is expected that the amendments to the Drug Administration Law will be launched soon. The full implementation of the drug listing permit holder system will be conducive to the development of new drugs. It is expected that the drug management reform will accelerate the advent of large-scale large enterprises, and is generally beneficial to domestic leading enterprises of innovative drugs. As China accelerates the reform of innovative medicine legislation and policy implementation, it will greatly promote the long-term healthy development of the innovative medicine industry. Judging from the results of the 3 quarterly report, the growth rate of Q3 has improved significantly. The valuation of PE in the sector is slightly higher than the historical average. At present, it is recommended to grasp the opportunity of valuation switching.

Media

In the early stage, the media sector rose due to many factors such as exceeding the expectations of the National Day box office and the high market atmosphere in the previous period. Overall, the media sector valuation is still at a low level, the results of the third quarter report disclosed more than 60%, the performance pre-happiness rate reached about 70%. Overall, the media sector's performance has diverged, but the valuation switch is still expected, follow-up recommendations focus on high performance and high growth quality targets.

Environmental protection: The development of manufacturing development opinions, the target value of 100 billion by 2020

On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Environmental Protection Manufacturing Industry". The opinion puts that by 2020, the industry's innovation capability will be significantly improved, key core technologies will achieve new breakthroughs, and the innovation-driven industry development system will be basically completed. The effective supply capacity of advanced environmental protection technology and equipment has been significantly improved, and the market share has increased significantly. The main technical equipment has basically reached the international advanced level, and the international competitiveness has been significantly enhanced. The industrial structure has been continuously optimized, supporting a number of standardized enterprises with demonstration and leading functions in each key area, cultivating ten leading enterprises of 10 billion scales, and creating thousands of “specialized and special” small and medium-sized enterprises, forming several strong driving effects and distinctive features. Industrial cluster. The output value of environmental protection equipment manufacturing industry reached 100 billion yuan. With both policy-driven and domestic industrial transformation and international development needs, China's environmental protection equipment manufacturing has once again stood on the policy slogan, facing the market with unlimited potential.

Since 2017, relevant policies for the environmental protection industry have been intensively introduced. The 19th National Congress has deployed four tasks to promote green development, focus on solving outstanding environmental problems, increase protection of ecosystems, and reform the ecological environment supervision system. During the time, the sustained high-speed growth of the environmental protection industry was generally optimistic, and the three sub-sectors of industrial environmental protection, agricultural environmental protection and environmental monitoring were regarded as the bright spots of the future.

With the development of domestic environmental protection and the development of beautiful China, the investment space in China's environmental protection field is still expanding. Driven by the policy, the environmental protection industry is still expected to continue to pay attention. It is recommended to focus on the leading indicators in various fields including atmospheric management, water treatment, solid waste, environmental monitoring and soil remediation. From the perspective of valuation, the current PE valuation of Shenwan Environmental Engineering and Service Industry is at the historical average level. It is expected that policy-driven and performance release will benefit the leading targets.

6 topic tracking

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration: high-end enterprises and high-tech enterprises accelerate their entry into Xiong'an New District

On September 28th, the Administrative Committee of Hebei Xiong'an New District released the news on the official Weibo “Xionan Release”. After the review, the first batch of approved Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Jingdong Finance, 360 Qiho, Shenzhen Guangqi, China Development Bank, China Telecom, China Life Insurance, etc. set up 48 enterprises in the new district.

Internet technology giants are the most eye-catching of these companies. Tencent is the first Internet technology giant to register successfully in Xiong'an New District. According to the information disclosed on the Internet, its business scope includes computer software and hardware design, technology development, sales, database and computer internet information services, etc. Tencent said As the first batch of domestic Internet companies stationed in Xiong'an New District, they will play rich experience accumulated in the fields of smart city, smart transportation, internet of things and sponge city in the past few years, and serve well and cooperate with the planning and construction of Xiong'an New District.

Alibaba was officially established in Xiong'an New District on October 23, becoming the first Internet technology giant to be listed in the Xiong'an New District. According to the project leader, Alibaba Group will establish three subsidiaries in Xiong'an New District, namely “Alibaba (Xiong'an) Artificial Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd.”, “Ant Jinfu (Xiong’an) Digital Technology Co., Ltd.” and “ Rookie Technology (Xiong'an) Network Co., Ltd., Alibaba will cooperate with Xiong'an New Area in artificial intelligence, technology finance, and smart logistics to jointly promote the construction of “smart male security”.

In addition to Internet companies, the first batch of approved enterprises include cutting-edge information technology enterprises, modern financial service enterprises, high-end technology research institutes, green ecological enterprises, and high-end service enterprises, all of which are high-end and high-tech enterprises. They are also accelerating the process of entering the Xiong'an New District. It is foreseeable that the entry of these enterprises will greatly promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of Xiong'an New District, and at the same time drive the rise of housing rental prices in Xiong'an New District.

State-owned enterprise reform: mixed reform, restructuring and follow-up

At the central level, on Friday, Hao Peng, secretary of the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, said in an interview with reporters that the central enterprises have achieved remarkable results in the past five years, showing stronger strength, better structure, greater contribution and greater party leadership. Aspect changes. On Tuesday, the People’s Daily issued a document to lay a solid foundation for reforms in the new era, demanding that all untimely ideological concepts and institutional mechanisms be dispelled, break through the barriers of solidification of interests, and give full play to the superiority of our socialist system. From the dynamics of the central level this week, with the continuous deepening of reforms, central enterprises have achieved initial success in slimming up their physical fitness, improving their hard power, and reforming their side supply. Under the new historical orientation, state-owned enterprises should be the vanguard team to undertake the new historical mission, solve the "unbalanced" and "insufficient" new contradictions, and practice the main force of Xi Jinping's new ideas of enterprise management. The practitioners of the "new" journey are striving to be the leader of the new tasks of world-class enterprises.

At the local level, the implementation plan for the reform of the state-owned enterprise system in Liaoning Province was released, and the restructuring enterprise should accelerate the formation of an effective corporate balance and corporate governance structure and a flexible and efficient market-oriented operating mechanism. Shenzhen State-owned Assets Whole System Mixed Reform Work Plan: It will build the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Department. Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission Taiyuan Special Office sent a report to the Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission to investigate and discuss the reform of state-owned enterprises. The reform of state-owned enterprises in various localities has been frequent, the basic layout has been continuously optimized, the quality and efficiency have increased steadily, and the vitality of state-owned enterprises has been continuously enhanced.

At the enterprise level, Dongfang Energy intends to acquire a 100% stake in Shanxi Renewable Energy Co., Ltd., a national power investment group, through a non-public agreement transfer method. Nanjing Panda Shareholder China Huarong intends to reduce its holdings by no more than 18.19 million shares, accounting for 1.99% of the total share capital. As of the announcement date, China Huarong holds 82.81 million shares, accounting for 9.06% of the company's total share capital. Aerospace Electromechanical Co., Ltd. plans to sell 100% of the shares of six power station project companies such as Jingyi Taike Photovoltaic Power Co., Ltd. held by the company through the public listing of the property rights exchange.

In the recent reform of state-owned enterprises that we have investigated, the biggest problems encountered by enterprises are generally reflected in the institutional factors such as approval. Therefore, the top-down promotion model of this round of state-owned enterprise reform is conducive to the reform. In terms of investment advice, we recommend focusing on the following mixed improvement of central enterprise groups and the targets of listed companies. In addition, at the local level, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities in the reform of Tianjin state-owned enterprises.

Military industry: the military-civilian integration strategy is accelerating, and the efficiency of policy implementation is greatly enhanced.

In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, in the "New Era Thoughts and Basic Strategies of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics", it is clearly stated that "more emphasis will be placed on military-civil integration." On September 22nd, the second plenary meeting of the Central Military-civilian Integration Development Committee was held. President Xi delivered an important speech, stressing the need to focus on the key areas of military-civilian integration development, and promote the overall level with a point-to-face approach. Since the 18th National Congress, state leaders have attached great importance to the integration of military and civilian development and promoted it to a national strategy. Since the establishment of the Central Military-Military Integration Development Committee at the beginning of this year, Xi Jinping has served as the director, marking the arrival of the 2.0 era of military-civilian integration. The integration of military and civilians has entered the specific implementation stage from the planning stage, from the narrow military-civilian integration to the generalized military-civilian integration, and a series of supporting policies have been introduced.

Since the first meeting of the Central Military-civilian Integration Development Committee, the tasks of military-civilian integration have been stepped up, and significant progress has been made in top-level planning, deepening reform, sharing and opening up, and the top-level design has been continuously improved. The interval between meetings is getting shorter and shorter, and the frequency is getting higher and higher. All of them reflect the importance attached by the central government to the integration of military and civilian development. With the development of a series of conferences, the reform of the military-civilian integration has entered an accelerated implementation phase and has become a top-level national strategy for coordinating economic construction and national defense industry construction. Relevant plans will be intensified.

With the further deepening of military-civilian integration and the vigorous advancement of state-owned enterprise reform, the internal and external factors of the military industry have gradually evolved toward positive aspects, and military reform will continue to accelerate. The current market has a large expected improvement in the fundamentals of the industry, and the market sentiment and allocation ratio are at a low point. The previous market adjustments have reflected the impact of lower-than-expected sector results this year, and the downward space is very limited. It is the better time to strategically deploy the military sector. It is recommended that the standard two-pole configuration (industrial chain leader + high-quality civil squadron), the preferred national team leader.

Sina statement: This news is reproduced from the Sina cooperation media, Sina.com posted this article for the purpose of transmitting more information, does not mean agree with its views or confirm its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate on this basis at their own risk.

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